On September 6th, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data showing that the global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) in August was 48.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from July, marking the second consecutive month on month increase.
Wu Wei, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, told Securities Daily that the changes in the index indicate that the global manufacturing industry rebounded in August compared to July, but the index is still at a low level of around 48%. The global economy is showing a weak recovery trend, and the overall tightening environment has not changed. Demand contraction pressure still exists.
Wu Wei stated that based on the trend of new export orders from various countries, the index of new export orders from major countries such as China, the United States, and Japan remained at a relatively low level in August. From the perspective of trade environment, there are still many uncertain factors such as inflation pressure, financial market risks, and debt risks, and the global economy will continue to maintain a low growth trend.
Data shows that in August, the PMI of Asia's manufacturing industry was 50.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to July. It has been increasing month on month for two consecutive months, and has been above 50% for eight consecutive months, indicating that Asia's manufacturing industry continues to maintain a stable growth trend.
From the perspective of major countries, although the PMI of China's manufacturing industry is still below 50%, it has been rising for three consecutive months, further consolidating its upward momentum; India's manufacturing industry has maintained strong growth, with a PMI increase from July and above 58%; From the perspective of major ASEAN countries, Indonesia's manufacturing industry has maintained rapid growth, with a PMI of over 53%. Vietnam's manufacturing industry has ended its 5-month trend of below 50%, rising to 50.5%.
In terms of the Americas, in August, the PMI of the manufacturing industry in the Americas was 47.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to July. It has been increasing month on month for two consecutive months, but it has been operating below 50% for 10 consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry in the Americas has recovered in the past two months, but has not yet emerged from a weak operating trend.
Although the current US manufacturing industry has recovered compared to July, demand is still relatively sluggish and the overall trend remains weak and volatile. "Wu Wei said that the US continues to face a dilemma between curbing inflation and economic recovery. The US monetary policy has not changed the tightening trend, and the Federal Reserve does not rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Continuing to raise interest rates by the Federal Reserve may continue to quell inflationary pressures, but it will also lead to an economic downturn and even face the risk of a "hard landing".
